Population Estimates Show Big City Losses, Suburbs Gaining, According to UA Data Center

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – Natural Bridge likely has the highest percentage of citizen participation in local government than any town in the state, with 25 percent of the town’s population being city officials. That said, realize that Natural Bridge is also the smallest incorporated town in the state, with an estimated 28 residents.

The Natural Bridge population is part of the information released today (Wednesday, June 21) by the Census Bureau and includes estimates of the populations of all 456 of Alabama’s incorporated cities and towns.

Annette Watters, manager of the State Data Center at The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research, noted that communities that are not incorporated, even large and well-known ones, were not part of these estimates.

“For example, Tillman’s Corner in Mobile County, with more than 15,600 people, would rank in the top 40 of Alabama cities, if it were incorporated,” Watters said. “Since it is not, we have no mid-decade estimate for Tillman’s Corner. On the other hand, Center Point in Jefferson County has incorporated since the 2000 census, and that new city is included in the new estimates.”

Watters said Alabama has a number of places that have incorporated since census 2000. They range from very small (Bakerhill at 321, Kellyton at 216) to quite large (Center Point at 15,368). The state also has 17 towns with fewer than 100 residents. Natural Bridge is the smallest, with an estimated 28 residents.

“For the most part, the small towns were small when the last census was taken, and their population hasn’t changed much since in the 21st century. The state’s large cities are much more volatile,” Watters said

Birmingham is the state’s largest city, but its population has been contracting for several decades. Since Census 2000, Birmingham has lost more than 11,000 people, or 4.6 percent of its total, according to Watters.

Despite Birmingham’s losses, other cities in that metro area are growing very fast. Pelham, Hoover, Alabaster and Calera are among the top 10 population-gainers in the state between 2000 and 2005. Trussville, Helena and Moody are other Birmingham metro area cities that have picked up 3,000 or more residents in five years’ time. Calera’s change from 3,166 in 2000 to 6,707 in 2005 means it more than doubled in size in five years.

Montgomery is the state’s second largest city. “There’s been a great deal of growth in the Montgomery area, but the city itself has declined in population,” Watters said “Of course, the city has seen areas of growth, but those pockets of growth have been more than offset by losses of population in other areas. Montgomery has about 1,500 fewer people now than it did in 2000.

“Whereas Montgomery has not gained additional residents, nearby Millbrook and Prattville are in the top 10 cities in the state gaining people.”

Mobile is the state’s third largest city and has also lost population over the last five years. Mobile’s population in 2005 was about 191,500, down from 199, 200 in 2000.

The fourth largest city, Huntsville, has gained the most people thus far in the decade. Huntsville has 6,700 more people now than it did when the census was taken.

Auburn’s population boom has been nearly as large as Huntsville’s, Watters said. Auburn has grown by 6,600 people over five years. “Because Auburn is not nearly as large a city as Huntsville, that number of people means Auburn has increased by 15 percent, whereas Huntsville’s growth has been 4 percent, even while Huntsville added slightly more people,” Watters said.

The City of Madison, adjacent to Huntsville, has also been part of the Madison County boom. Madison city has added more than 6,500 people in five years. Other governmental leaders of nearby towns and unincorporated territory anticipate that some of this fast growth will also accrue to their areas in the second half of the decade, according to Watters.

There are 29 Alabama cities that have gained 1,000 or more people since census day. Some are small cities, like Enterprise and Albertville. Some, like Foley, Orange Beach and Gulf Shores, are even smaller municipalities. Others, like Tuscaloosa and its neighbor Northport, anchor a geographically large economic area.

Birmingham, Mobile and Montgomery are not the only central cities of Alabama metro areas with declining populations. Anniston and Gadsden have also had overall losses in the last five years. Gadsden has lost more than 1,000 people and Anniston has lost about 750. Oxford, adjacent to Anniston, has picked up more than 1,000 people.

“A city’s population growth or decline is not the same thing as its destiny,” Watters said. “Economic health and population growth are not synonymous. Population decline sometimes gives cities the opportunity to renew and reinvigorate. Population growth sometimes gives cities big headaches. In the 21st century, effective governmental leaders realize that prosperity is the goal, not just growth. Working together with neighboring cities and towns is the key to prosperity. Through cooperation, everybody can benefit, no matter who has the most new people.”

The State Data Center is part of the Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration’s Center for Business and Economic Research. The Center was created in 1930, and since that time has engaged in research programs to promote economic development in the state while continuously expanding and refining its base of socioeconomic information.