One of Least Productive Years in Congressional History Ahead

For the 31st consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year.

The 2012 congressional elections will see Republicans hold onto the U.S. House of Representatives and Democrats hold onto the Senate, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts. But, new faces may emerge as Republican and Democratic candidates challenge incumbents in primaries.

“This will be a status-quo election for Congress in terms of the partisan breakdown,” says Dr. Stephen Borrelli, professor of political science. “But you may see more primary challenges within their own parties, so there’ll be some turnover that way. The party might hold the seat, but the person in it will change.”

Borrelli also predicts continued stalemate in Congress as the presidential election approaches, particularly if unemployment continues to fall.

“You’re going to see one of the least productive years in the history of Congress,” Borrelli says. “It will be all they can do to keep the government running, because of the uncertainty at the presidential level. I don’t think they’ll feel any compulsion to show productivity. They’ll really feel more pressure to stick to their guns and demagogue issues.”

One area that might see some movement is in tax reform, Borrelli says – if not in 2012, then after the elections and into 2013.

“We might see some serious proposals to simplify the tax code and get rid of loopholes,” Borrelli says. “But the revisions probably won’t have an impact on the deficit, because, to get it passed, there probably won’t be a net tax increase.”