UA Study: Fall, Holidays Dangerous Time for Young Drivers

TUSCALOOSA, Ala.  — The last three months of the year can be treacherous for all drivers, but young drivers are involved in considerably more crashes during that time than the rest of the year, according to a recent study of traffic data by The University of Alabama Center for Advanced Public Safety.

Each day during the past five years, Alabama drivers between the ages of 16-20 have been involved in about 22 percent of crashes, despite their accounting for a bit less than 7 percent of all drivers.

Further, young drivers are reported to be the cause of more than 16 percent of all vehicle crashes, which is more than twice what would be expected, considering the number of young drivers, said Dr. David B. Brown, a research associate with CAPS.

Averaging the past five years in the state, young drivers are involved in 79 crashes a day, out of an average of 355 total crashes per day. During the last three months, though, young drivers are involved in 84 crashes per day on average. Also, young drivers are involved in more than 100 crashes, on average, on four days during the last quarter, the same number of 100-plus crash days that occur during the previous three quarters of the year, combined.

“We have found in previous studies that 16 to 20 is our most vulnerable age group,” Brown said.

The study employed the Critical Analysis Reporting Environment, or CARE, a software analysis system developed by CAPS research and development personnel to automatically mine information from existing databases. Crash records for the study were provided by the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency, or ALEA.

For the study, CAPS researchers looked at the year in six-day chunks from 2010-2014 to see which days had more crashes than average, or were over-represented. The six-day time frame tended to average various weather and outliers to smooth the data results, giving a clearer picture of which times of the year have more crashes than average.

“Exact ‘worst date of the year’ specifications are not very useful because one of the most critical factors in crash frequency is the day of the week,” Brown said. “Fridays are generally the worst day, and the same date falls on a different day-of-the-week every year.”

The worst day of the year for young drivers was found to be Nov. 15 over the past five years, which has an average of 138 crashes involving young drivers. It was also found to be the worst day of the year for all aged drivers, according to the study.

“This year Nov. 15 will fall on a Sunday, the day of the week that typically has the least number of crashes, so, if we had to predict the worst day for 2015, it would be one of the closest Fridays to Nov. 15, which, this year, would be Nov. 13 and 20,” Brown said.

Other days in the last quarter of the year with more than 100 crashes on average for young drivers include Oct. 31, Dec. 16 and Dec. 20. In fact, Halloween and the first five days of November are some of the worst days for crashes involving young drivers, as are the 12 days leading to Christmas, according to the CAPS study.

Moreover, only 19 days out the 92 days in the last quarter of the year have less-than-average crashes involving young drivers. “It is clear that October, November and December are, collectively, the worst sequences of three month over-involvement,” Brown said.

CAPS researchers also found that drivers of all ages have more crashes than average in November and December.

The worst two-week period for young drivers is the 12 days from Dec. 13 to Christmas Eve, Dec. 24.

“The explanation for this has to do with the young drivers adding to an already high mix of people doing unusual things at this time – excess shopping, visiting, and general pre-holiday celebrations often out of their normal driving areas,” Brown said. “This time period is over-represented in general, but it is particularly problematic for young drivers.”

During the rest of the year, January, February and the summer months of June, July and August are the months with the fewest crashes involving young drivers. The spring, March through May, can have more crashes than average for young people, but not as many as the fall, according to the study. Still, the first half of April can be dangerous for young drivers, according to the study.

“This is easily attributed to spring breaks that span this time frame starting at the end of March going right through the middle of April,” Brown said.

According to Dr. Allen Parrish, director of CAPS, the CARE software system has been continuously upgraded by CAPS over the past decade to greatly facilitate this study.

“CARE enabled us to easily compare the various six-day periods and to look at every attribute in the Alabama crash database” Parrish said.

Considering the holiday driving season is looming, Parrish offered the following tips:

• Do not drink and drive, and do not ride with anyone who has had any alcohol or drug use. Avoid the late-night and early morning hours when you could become a victim of an impaired driver.

• Watch the weather and, if at all possible, avoid times of decreased visibility or wet pavement, especially when coupled with darkness. If caught in a heavy storm, take a break from driving until the shower passes.

• Crash avoidance time strategy is independent of day – leave early enough so that you accomplish most of your driving in the daylight.

• Thanksgiving and Christmas days during the daylight hours are good times to travel from a crash avoidance point of view.

• Travelers in rural areas, especially where deer are protected, should recognize the nocturnal nature of deer, and the fact that they start to seek food at dusk at this time of year. Be especially careful in new construction areas where rye has been planted as a cover on re-worked shoulders and roadsides.

• Delegate all cell phone use to a passenger to keep the driver from distractions. This has clearly become one of the major traffic safety issues over the past five years.

• Always use safety restraints, and make sure everyone in the car uses theirs, even on the shortest of trips. This is the number one defense against becoming a fatality victim.

• Keep speed down because every 10 mph reduction in speed cuts the probability of being killed in a crash in half. Most GPS systems clearly confirm an extra 5 mph in speed does not cut much time from a trip, but it could result in passengers becoming victims in a fatal crash.

• Drive to reduce risk – back off instead of tailgating, stay out of the blind spots of large trucks, and let aggressive drivers pass.

The Safe Home Alabama website provides a comprehensive view of all known organized traffic safety efforts in the state of Alabama.  A similar study to the above was performed for older drivers, and the results of that study will soon appear on the Safe Home Alabama site.

UA’s Center for Advanced Public Safety used their own CARE software to analyze the data to obtain the statistics for this article. Try CARE online analysis at http://www.caps.ua.edu/analytics/portals

CAPS routinely provides a variety of safety studies and planning documents, such as Crash Facts Books and Highway Safety Plans.