Educated Guesses: Predictions for 2016

For the 35^th consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year. See our list of “Educated Guesses” for 2016:

• Trump Will Make a Run, but Clinton Will Prevail
• Package Delivery by Drones Closer to Reality
• Hints of Sparkle Await the Daring in 2016
• States Likely to Loosen Restrictions for Online Fantasy Sports
• GOP to Hold On to Congress
• Reports of Cyber Attacks Will Grow
• Push to Expand Medicaid in Alabama
• Fast Food to Continue Transformation to Fast Casual
• Foreign Policy to Take a Back Seat in Presidential Race
• In-state Jobs to Increase by 1 Percent
• Regulations, Cheap Natural Gas Mean No Return to Coal

For more insight into some of the thinking behind each guess and for contact information, see below. Media Relations contacts: Chris Bryant, cbryant@ur.ua.edu, 205/348-8323 (print/online media); Shane Dorrill, sdorrill@ur.ua.edu, 205/348-8319 (broadcast media)

Trump Will Make a Run, but Clinton Will Prevail
Donald Trump will make a strong run for the Republican nomination for president, but eventually he will fall short as the Republican establishment rallies around one candidate, with Marco Rubio being the most likely, predicts Dr. Richard Fording, professor and chair of the political science department at The University of Alabama. However, none of this will matter, because Hillary Clinton will be easily elected in November as our next president and our first woman in the Oval Office.
Contact: Dr. Richard Fording, rcfording@ua.edu, 205/348-5981
(Back to Top)

Package Delivery by Drones Closer to Reality
Being pushed commercially by such companies as Amazon, Google and Wal-Mart, delivery by small, unmanned air vehicles, known as drones, will become closer to reality in 2016 as regulations are formalized and testing moves to restricted outdoor areas, predicts Dr. Paul Hubner, University of Alabama associate professor of aerospace engineering and mechanics. “Santa’s job security for next year is OK, but, in 2017, he will have some competition in delivering small presents in limited areas,” Hubner says.
Contact: Dr. Paul Hubner, phubner@eng.ua.edu, 205/348-1617
(Back to Top)

Hints of Sparkle Await the Daring in 2016
For 2016, expect to see softer colors and warm, cozy textures, predicts Stephanie Sickler, assistant professor in the department of clothing, textiles and interior design in The University of Alabama’s College of Human Environmental Sciences. A hint of sparkle and sophisticated glamor is waiting around the corner for those daring enough to try pairing it with sleek, smooth, surfaces and light, fluffy fabrics. Have fun spicing things up in 2016.
Contact: Stephanie Sickler, ssickler@ches.ua.edu, 205/348-4262
(Back to Top)

States Likely to Loosen Restrictions for Online Fantasy Sports
Most states will move toward more gambling-friendly stances regarding sports betting and various types of fantasy play by 2016’s end, says a University of Alabama sports communication expert. Despite concerns about the rise of daily fantasy sports and other potentially gray areas in gambling laws, states (and professional sports leagues) likely will be on the side of loosening restrictions rather than drafting new ones, says Dr. Andrew Billings, UA’s Ronald Reagan Chair of Broadcasting.
Dr. Andrew Billings, acbillings@ua.edu, 205/348-8658
(Back to Top)

GOP to Hold On to Congress
Republicans will retain control of the House and Senate in the 2016 Congressional elections, as national security concerns, continued effects of the 2010 redistricting, and relatively low turnout (for a presidential year) will thwart any chance of a Democratic Congressional comeback, predicts Dr. Stephen Borrelli, University of Alabama professor of political science. Depending on who the Republican nominee is, there may also be the desire among some voters to “check” a Democratic vote for president.
Contact: Dr. Stephen Borrelli, sborrell@ua.edu, 205/348-3812
(Back to Top)

Reports of Cyber Attacks will Grow
Cyber attacks worldwide are likely to increase in 2016 as internet connectivity rates grow, says a University of Alabama assistant professor of criminal justice. It’s less clear, says Dr. Diana Dolliver, whether rates in cyber attacks are increasing because of a rise in the actual number of individuals and groups conducting and launching offensive cyber maneuvers or whether the reporting of cybercrimes and attacks is improving. The truth, Dolliver says, is likely a combination of the two, and accurate reporting will only continue improving. And, 2016 likely will see continued cyber-related legislation developed and discussed, she says.  “Given the terrorist-related events of 2015, any legislative proposals are likely to emphasize increasing law enforcement’s abilities to monitor and detect cyber-based threats,” Dolliver says.
Dr. Diana Dolliver, dldolliver@ua.edu, 205/348-2062
(Back to Top)

Push to Expand Medicaid in Alabama
The Alabama Legislature will have new and critical conversations about expanding Medicaid services in Alabama, as more of the state’s working families fall into the uninsured coverage gap, predicts Dr. Lea Yerby, assistant professor of community and rural medicine in the College of Community Health Sciences at The University of Alabama. Alabama residents will push their legislators to go past political rhetoric and “problem solve” coverage when their own communities are affected by the loss of local hospitals, health care access and related jobs and industry. Currently, 139,000 people in the state are without insurance, she says.
Contact: Dr. Lea Yerby, yerby002@cchs.ua.edu, 205/348-4693
(Back to Top)

Fast Food to Continue Transformation to Fast Casual
The fast-food industry will continue its transformation in 2016 to more of a “fast casual,” atmosphere with improving food quality and increasing “build your own” combo formats, predicts Sheena Quizon Gregg, a registered dietitian and assistant director in the department of health promotion and wellness at The University of Alabama. The formal restaurant scene will see an emphasis on more authentic ethnic cuisine. Many restaurants will see a focus on suppliers specializing in producing food from non-genetically modified organisms.
Contact: Sheena Quizon Gregg, sqgregg@ua.edu, 205/348-0205
(Back to Top)

Foreign Policy to Take a Back Seat in Presidential Race
Foreign policy and terrorism will not be significant issues in the 2016 presidential election (or any of the 2016 elections) in the United States, predicts Dr. Douglas Gibler, a University of Alabama professor of political science. The United States rests isolated from conflict by two large oceans and friendly neighbors. So, while politicians may try to make foreign policy relevant, the average American is almost never affected by most foreign conflicts, and many other issues end up mattering more to voters. This is even true for international terrorism.
Contact: Dr. Douglas Gibler, dmgibler@ua.edu, 205/348-8000
(Back to Top)

In-state Jobs to Increase by 1 Percent  
Alabama’s economy will grow in 2016, and total payrolls will increase by about 1 percent, adding about 25,000 to 30,000 jobs, predicts Ahmad Ijaz, director of economic forecasting within the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama. Most new jobs will be in accommodation and food services, administrative support and waste management, and health care and social assistance-related services, he says. Within manufacturing industries, almost all new jobs will be in transportation-related manufacturing. Most other industries are expected to lose jobs, he says.
Contact: Ahmad Ijaz, aijaz@cba.ua.edu, 205/348-2955
(Back to Top)

Regulations, Cheap Natural Gas Mean No Return to Coal
The double whammy of continued low prices for natural gas along with government environmental regulations will mean electric utilities will continue using natural gas to replace coal-fired power generation, predicts Dr. Jason Bara, a University of Alabama professor of chemical and biological engineering. “It’s the easiest and most cost-effective way to significantly reduce emissions in the near term while utilizing existing infrastructure,” Bara says. “Solar, wind, renewables and, perhaps most importantly, energy efficiency will also play increasingly major roles moving forward. ‘Cleaner’ coal, in the form of CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and sequestration) technologies are still actively under development, but until/unless they are proven and deployed at large scales, coal will be in a prolonged hibernation in the U.S.”
Contact: Dr. Jason Bara, jbara@eng.ua.edu, 205/348-6836
(Back to Top)