UA’s Guide to What to Watch for in 2014 Midterm Elections

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — The most exciting aspect of the 2014 midterm elections boils down to a race for six seats in the U.S. Senate. That’s what it will take for Republicans to take a majority in the Senate. While many pundits consider three races to be a lock—or nearly so—for Republicans, The University of Alabama has you covered on just what these elections could mean down the road:

• Even if the GOP takes a majority in the Senate and House, don’t expect a whole lot to change.

“I think we’ll see relatively little change in terms of policy,” said Dr. George Hawley, political science professor at The University of Alabama. “For example, I don’t think you’ll see a repeal of Obamacare. I think we could see Obama use a veto more frequently, but I don’t see Republicans having the kind of majority needed to override the president’s veto.”

• A Republican-controlled Congress isn’t necessarily an indictment of the president.

“Generally speaking, the president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections. Since the Civil War, there have been only three exceptions: 1934, 1998, and 2002. A substantial loss for Democrats this year would be congruent with the historic norm.”

• However, big wins for the Republicans could mean a surge toward the next presidential election.

“Certainly the Republicans would kind of feel they had the wind to their backs going into 2016 if they have control of both houses of Congress,” Hawley said. “The Democrats have not been helped by President Obama appearing ineffectual, especially as of late. The results this November will tell us little about 2016. After all, the Republicans won big in 2010, but President Obama won his reelection bid in 2012 by a comfortable margin.”

THE RACES

Three states—Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia—are considered a lock for GOP Senate candidates. While nothing is certain, there are multiple races where things are very much up in the air.

• Kentucky—Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)

McConnell is the Senate minority leader, but he could be considered unpopular in his own state. Grimes is secretary of state for Kentucky, and she could be surging to a grassroots victory. Or not. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pulled its funding of Grimes’ TV ads going into the final 30 days of the campaign.

“This could mean that they (the DSCC) no longer consider this one of the closer Senate races and are choosing to invest their money elsewhere,” Hawley said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t think Grimes has a shot to knock out McConnell.”

• Colorado—Incumbent Mark Udall (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R)

Colorado has gone Democrat over the past decade, but Gardner leads in most polls as the election nears. Combine that with the closer-than-a-shave gubernatorial race, and politics in Colorado bears watching closely.

“Colorado is one of the most interesting Senate races to watch,” Hawley said. “Up until 2004, the state was solidly red, but a rapidly changing population altered that in recent elections. You have people moving to Colorado from California, as well as the Latino population increasing, so the state has leaned blue. However, with close races in the Senate and for the governorship, Colorado may not be as blue as it appears.”

• Iowa—Joni Ernst (R) vs. Bruce Braley (D)

Ernst has put up a strong fight in a largely blue state, with Braley pulling ahead by a hair in the polls. It’s neck-and-neck, with the GOP hoping to break new ground in the upper Midwest.

“In the coming years, if the GOP can make some strides in the upper Midwest, places like Iowa and Wisconsin and Minnesota, it could offset some of the losses they’ve seen in the Southwest due to demographic changes in those states,” Hawley said.

• Kansas—Incumbent Pat Roberts (R) vs. Greg Orman (I)

Hey, how’d that (I) get in there? While Orman isn’t running as a Democrat, it would be a huge blow to the GOP if a four-term senator like Roberts got dumped for Orman, the UA political scientist said. And, if Orman wins, he would join two other independent senators already elected.

“Roberts’ defeat would represent a major victory for Democrats, as all U.S. senators from Kansas have been Republicans for many decades,” Hawley said. “I suspect Roberts will narrowly win this election. But the fact that it is even close demonstrates Roberts’ weakness as a candidate.”

UA’s department of political science is a part of the College of Arts and Sciences, the University’s largest division and the largest liberal arts college in the state. Students from the College have won numerous national awards including Rhodes Scholarships, Goldwater Scholarships, Truman Scholarships and memberships on the USA Today Academic All American Team.