For the 32nd consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year.
The civil war in Syria between the government of President Bashar al-Assad and anti-Baath Party rebels likely will continue throughout 2013 with the international community looking on, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts.
“The two sides don’t trust each other,” says Dr. Emily Hencken Ritter, UA assistant professor of political science and an expert in armed conflict. “In particular, they have little reason to trust that an agreement, which would require that either the rebels lay down their means of self-protection or that the government would change or both, would be honored once made. Thus, this is likely to be a very long war … as most civil wars are.”
Despite the escalation of the conflict, Ritter says the international community is unlikely to intervene.
“Syria has important allies that will veto UN approval of intervention,” Ritter says. “The conflict is not a high enough priority for states to intervene unilaterally.”
In addition, Ritter predicts that the standoff between Iran and an international alliance, including the United States, over Iran’s purported attempt to build a nuclear weapon will continue in 2013. But the chances of Iran finishing a nuclear weapon is low, as is a long-threatened aerial attack by Israel or other forces on Iran’s nuclear program.
“Iran is unlikely to develop a weaponized nuclear device in the next year,” Ritter says. “More importantly, since Israel is currently distracted by the recent missile attacks from Gaza and the civil war in Syria, there is less pressure for the United States (who wants to avoid a situation in which Israel strikes first) to be involved.”