Obama to Battle, Beat Late-Entry Republican

For the 31st consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year.

President Obama is likely to win re-election in 2012, but his Republican opponent will not be one of the current candidates battling one another in the early primaries, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts.

The current primary fight, during which the front-runner banner has passed among several candidates, may convince GOP leaders to seek someone not currently in the hunt.

“I just can’t believe that the Republicans in the establishment – or would-be candidates on the sideline – are going to stand by and let this happen,” says Dr. Richard C. Fording, chair of the UA political science department.

“They don’t have a candidate who can beat Obama,” Fording says. “When you look at the polls and you see Obama versus a hypothetical Republican challenger, it’s very close, and sometimes the Republican is slightly ahead. But when you put a name to that hypothetical Republican challenger, Obama has a very comfortable margin. And Obama hasn’t even begun to campaign yet.”

Fording cites former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s inability to capture and hold the lead as a sign of his weakness against the rest of the field, particularly former U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich.

“If Romney can’t emerge by now, there’s something deeply flawed about his candidacy,” Fording says. “I think there are a lot of Republicans who are not going be satisfied with the best of who’s out there now.”

Although a new candidate – for example, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, businessman Donald Trump or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — might be behind in organization and fund-raising, she or he would avoid the scathing political battles under way in the debates and in the Iowa caucuses.

“I bet a lot of people are reassessing their chances for the nomination without going through the grind of the primaries,” Fording says.