President Obama will seek the right mix of compromise and confrontation in 2011 as he faces a hostile House of Representatives following the GOP takeover in November and fewer Democrats in the Senate, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts.
“Obama will concentrate on finding a couple of issues that Republicans will want to cooperate on,” says Dr. Stephen Borrelli, associate professor of political science. “The electorate in the last election supposedly said they wanted less bickering and more accomplishment. At the same time, Obama will find issues to use against the Republicans for the 2012 election. It’s a very tough thing to pull off. If the Republicans are unwilling to give any policy accomplishments, then they’ll be seen as perpetuating business as usual, the uncivil tone and gridlock, and voters won’t look favorably on that.”
New members of Congress associated with the Tea Party have the potential to disrupt business as usual, Borrelli says, but in many ways how they behave in the political process is unpredictable.
“To try to predict the behavior of the Tea Party types is difficult,” Borrelli says. “Many of them will have to make a choice about whether they want to have an influence on what goes on, which necessitates negotiation and compromise, or whether they want to sit on the sidelines and be purists.”
Among the areas Borrelli sees as flash points is the budget deficit. Many proposals to reduce the deficit, including those from the National Commission on Fiscal Policy and Reform, now are on the table, and Obama may seize some to force the GOP to the bargaining table. Obama already proposed freezing pay increases for federal employees, and other measures may be forthcoming.
“There may be some meaningful efforts do some of what the national commission talked about, especially in the Pentagon,” Borrelli says. “I really do think that there could be some bipartisan support in changing the ways Pentagon does business in line with deficit commission recommendations, including base closures. There are several episodes in which Congress approved weapons systems even the military didn’t want. That may resonate with the Tea Party advocates who don’t want the United States to be the world’s policeman.”
Borrelli also predicts that repealing the health-care reform law will be difficult, because many of its facets are popular with the public. But the GOP may refuse to fund subsidies to help people buy insurance, which may prove unpopular as well.
“That would be awfully hard politically to do, particularly because you’re helping people buy private health insurance,” Borrelli says.
Source
Stephen Borrelli, sborrell@tenhoor.as.ua.edu; e-mail contact is preferred.