Iran to Cut a Deal to Stop Developing Nuclear Weapons; Small Clashes to Continue on Korean Peninsula

As tensions increase and in the shadow of a potential attack, Iran will cut a deal with world powers to stop developing nuclear weapons, a University of Alabama foreign-relations expert predicts.

“I think we’ll come very close to Iran being able to produce a nuclear weapon,” says Dr. Douglas Gibler, associate professor of political science. “Then they’ll back off. There will be some type of payoff agreement under the threat of attack. They will get a lot, possibly some kind of oil processing facilities and payments.”

Meanwhile, tensions on the Korean peninsula will continue to spark skirmishes as North Korea prepares for the passing of power from Kim Jong-Il to his son, Kim Jong-un. But these clashes probably will not build to open, widespread conflict.

“These small clashes are really nothing compared to the cost of an open conflict,” Gibler says. “The North wants to make Kim’s son some kind of hero against the South during the transition. There is not going to be peace until there’s some kind of regime change in the North, and regime change is unlikely given the structure of the government.”

Around the world, other potential touch points for conflict will arise as well in 2011, including in some unexpected places – a conflict between China and Japan over the Spratly Islands, for example.

“There are a surprising number of territorial disputes that are arising,” Gibler says. “Japan and China are in conflict, and there are territorial claims in the Arctic and Antarctica. If you’re looking for hot spots, these may be the places.”

Fighting in Afghanistan will continue, Gibler says. The United States has an interest in maintaining forces in Afghanistan in part because of the nuclear stockpile in Pakistan. The U.S. and NATO have an interest in keeping forces close to secure the weapons in case radicals seize power in Pakistan. In the meantime, casualties in the war will increase as the NATO surge pushes into Taliban strongholds.

“The number of casualties are increasing because of our increased presence there,” Giblers says. “As we move into the areas where the Taliban are active, the surge is going to be correlated with an increase in casualties.”