Thawing North to Provoke Conflict Among Nations in 2010, UA Expert Predicts

Conflict in the chilly Arctic Circle among Canada, Russia, Greenland and the United States will heat up beginning in 2010, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts.

“There’s a lot of exploration of the North Pole area, especially as things start to melt and the technology gets better, so we can access those resources,” says Dr. Douglas Gibler, associate professor of political science. “Greenland is independent. Canada wants to explore its greater north, and you have Russia trying to flex its muscle. And you have the United States.”

Gibler, who is an expert in the causes and solutions to international conflict, says that as ice melts in the Arctic region, islands are appearing and areas once inaccessible to development are opening up. So the stakes for nations whose borders touch the area are high. And when stakes are high, tensions might be high as well.

“Russia already has laid claim to a lot of territory,” Gibler says. “Greenland is newly independent from Denmark, and they have forsworn their subsidies from Denmark, and they think they can get their resources from the north to support themselves. So you’re going to have all sorts of territorial claims, and boundary disputes are among the most significant correlates of conflict.”

The nations involved could come together in a summit to work out issues of territories and resources. But Russia’s concern with natural resources and national pride could be a destabilizing factor.

“No one knows who controls what, so that could be an area of conflict,” Gibler says.

In addition to the Arctic Circle, Gibler sees the conflict with the Taliban in Afghanistan continuing through 2010 with President Obama’s recent announcement of a troop surge. But, he doesn’t see the conflict spilling over significantly into Pakistan, where Al Qaida operatives have moved.

“It’s going to be status quo or worse in Afghanistan, most likely a little bit worse,” Gibler says. “There might be some hot pursuit challenges into Pakistan, and if you maintain line of sight, you can pursue Taliban across the border. I don’t think the U.S. wants to move into Pakistan.”