Hybrids, Diesels and Fuel Economy … Hot Picks for Automotive 2010

The automotive crystal ball is obscured by great uncertainty, but 2010 promises to be an exciting year for the automotive sector. Which car brands will live, and which will die? Which manufacturers will Uncle Sam continue to bail out? Will biofuels penetrate the market further? Will new natural gas discoveries increase use of that option for fuel? Will the introduction of the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid meet success? Will new clean diesel models receive consumer acceptance?

Corporate average fuel economy regulations that were accelerated by President Obama’s administration will soon impact vehicle design. By 2016, new cars must average 42 miles per gallon, new trucks, including SUVs, will need to average 27 mpg, and a company’s overall product fleet average must exceed 35.5 mpg.

“Given that it requires several years to develop a new vehicle and that there are intermediate mileage milestones to meet, I believe the American vehicle fleet will be changing quickly,” says Dr. Clark Midkiff, professor of mechanical engineering and director of The University of Alabama’s Center for Advance Vehicle Technologies.

“If you are skeptical about the possibility of meeting these (fuel efficiency) goals, don’t be because Europe is already doing it. But, we should expect smaller vehicles, somewhat reduced peak power, more hybrids, more diesels, more plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles, and likely, fewer and more expensive trucks and SUVs on the showroom floor,” explains Midkiff.

Will these new, fuel-sipping vehicles accomplish the goals of reduced oil imports and lower carbon emissions?

“Consider human nature—if you get a new car that gets significantly better mileage and gasoline is still as cheap as it is now, won’t you drive more? It is likely that dramatic cuts in oil consumption will require both more efficient vehicles and higher fuel costs, either through the marketplace or higher taxes,” says Midkiff.