U.S. to Pull Out of Iraq, Increase Troops in Afghanistan

The incoming Obama administration will make good on pledges regarding the ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009 even as those nations pose huge challenges, says Dr. Douglas Gibler, associate professor of political science at The University of Alabama and an expert in international relations.

“The U.S. will pull out of Iraq,” Gibler says. “There will be more troops in Afghanistan most likely. And that will lead to peace. Right now, the troop level is quite low in Afghanistan. What’s going to be interesting is our relationship with Pakistan in dealing with border regions. Can you go ahead and do the line-of-sight chase, the hot-pursuit chase across the border?”

As for Iran, Gibler sees the beginning of a slow process of re-establishing relations, depending on whom President-elect Barack Obama places on his foreign policy team.

“You’re going to see a gradual détente with Iran, which actually has started through back channels with the Bush administration and a slow moderation of Iranian policy,” Gibler says.

Also, U.S. foreign policy starting in 2009 will stress more cooperative worldwide relationships, Gibler says. This change in focus will inhibit nations in conflict with the United States, including Russia and Venezuela, from building coalitions.

“With President Bush, there was an ability for states that were not in the favor of the West to unite against a common enemy,” Gibler says. “So you see Russia, Venezuela and Cuba and other countries getting together. But with the Obama administration, there’s going to be an emphasis on coalition building, on using the United Nations Security Council. These countries are not going to have the ability to form coalitions.”

Gibler also sees the worldwide economic downturn in 2009 as contributing to the internal conflicts of nations rather than causing fissures among countries suffering economic hardship. Leadership groups in Russia and China might turn up the volume on nationalism to distract people from economic woes.

President Obama may turn to foreign-policy issues as his domestic initiatives run into problems in the legislative process, Gibler predicts. “Traditionally, presidents have a lot more power over foreign policy than domestic policy,” Gibler says. “My best guess is that Obama will quickly become frustrated with domestic policy. It’s going to be very difficult to get his policies through Congress. But, because of his rhetorical appeal, because of the importance of issues like Iraq and Afghanistan, I think you’re going to see much more of a focus on foreign policy, because presidents want to be known for doing something.”