Regime Change Likely in North Korea

A regime change in North Korea is much more likely in 2007, projects a University of Alabama expert in international politics.

“While regime changes are incredibly difficult to predict, the recent testing of a nuclear device may be an indication of the relative weakness of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il,” says Dr. Doug Gibler, a UA political scientist whose research areas include international factors that contribute to intrastate conflict and democratic development.

“North Korea is one of the most isolated countries on earth. But, we do know that most of the domestic policies are geared primarily toward protection of the leader. Nuclear weapons have the ability to deter most attempts to conquer a nation, but the United States has little interest in tangling with North Korea given its proximity to South Korea – North Korea can easily shell Seoul, the capital, at any time. Thus, the pursuit of nuclear weapons may be a maneuver to reinforce the legitimacy of the Kim Jong-il regime internally.”