President Needs Elusive ‘Bounce’ Following Next Week’s Convention, Says UA Political Scientist

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – Much was made out of the lack of “bounce” Sen. John Kerry received in the polls following the Democratic Convention, but a University of Alabama political scientist says President George W. Bush has an even greater need for a poll bump following his party’s convention next week.

“Bush really does need a bounce, and the Democratic convention proved that bounces are hard to find in a polarized race with relatively few undecided voters,” said Dr. David Lanoue, professor and chair of political science at The University of Alabama.

“It seems to me that the Republicans need a bounce out of their convention even more than the Democrats did,” Lanoue said. “Conventional wisdom has it that undecided voters tend to support the challenger, so it is a bad sign for Bush if the election is essentially tied with two months to go. If he doesn’t get a bounce out of the convention, it is difficult to see what else would put him over the top, unless it’s the debates.”

The Republican National Convention begins Monday in New York.

The University of Alabama political scientist said the Republicans likely have two major convention goals: enhancing Bush’s war-time leader image, while painting a negative image of John Kerry.

“The first goal is to rehabilitate George Bush’s image as a strong, effective wartime leader,” said Lanoue. “This was supposed to be his greatest strength going into the fall campaign, but his image has been tarnished by the near-constant flood of bad news out of Iraq. The second goal is to paint a negative image of John Kerry without seeming overly mean-spirited. I doubt that there will be much discussion of Kerry’s Vietnam record, since the Republicans are trying to distance themselves (however disingenuously) from the claims being made by the so-called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

“Instead, speakers will concentrate on painting Kerry as an out-of-touch Massachusetts liberal, and a Senator who has served for 20 years with very little to show for it. They will also, no doubt, emphasize their claim that Kerry is a flip-flopper.”

Lanoue said the convention will likely be designed to appeal to the moderate swing voters.

“The list of speakers seems disproportionately tilted toward the fairly small socially moderate wing of the party, including Giuliani, Pataki, and Schwarzenegger. And they’ll have Senator Zell Miller, who remains, at least officially, a Democrat, to do some of their dirty work for them.”

It’s possible that President Bush’s acceptance speech may be the key to Republican efforts to generate a post-convention bounce, Lanoue said.

“I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a surprise, something that would rivet attention. This could take the form of a significant policy initiative, or perhaps some news regarding Iraq or the war on terrorism.”

UA’s political science department is part of the College of Arts and Sciences, the University’s largest division and the largest public liberal arts college in the state. The College has approximately 6,600 students and 360 faculty. Students from the College have won numerous national awards including Rhodes Scholarships, Goldwater Scholarships, and memberships on the USA Today Academic All American Team.